Yemen's fragile calm is fraying. After months of relative quiet, government forces have launched a counteroffensive against Houthi positions, and experts warn the country may be sliding back toward all-out conflict. The renewed violence around Marib—home to more than two million displaced people—has raised alarms about a humanitarian catastrophe and a wider regional war. Main Developments On Saturday, Yemeni government forces struck Houthi positions across multiple front lines, according to a military spokesman. The operation targeted the Houthis' "capabilities and forces" along "multiple axes and along the line of contact," with the stated goal of protecting unarmed civilians. The attack came hours after the Houthis resumed shelling Marib city with missiles and drones, as reported by Deputy Information Minister Mohammed Gezan. The shelling followed a Thursday assault on Hadramout and Marib provinces that killed at least 30 government soldiers and wounded 15 others. Read also: Why Fact-Checkers Are Challenging Farage's Immigration Claims On Friday, a separate Houthi attack killed two civilians and wounded 14 more in Marib, according to Yemen's Health Ministry. The Houthis claimed they were targeting a military camp on the city's outskirts, while the Yemeni army said it repelled the attack without casualties. Background This escalation marks the first time in months that government forces have announced a counteroffensive, framing it as retaliation for Houthi preemptive strikes on army positions in Marib and Hadramout. The Houthis, in turn, claim they suspect government forces are coordinating with Saudi Arabia on a broader offensive against Houthi-held territory. The 2022 truce that brought a measure of stability has long since expired, and the civil war never truly ended, according to Elisabeth Kendall, a Middle East specialist and president of Girton College at Cambridge. She noted that recent troop movements and clashes indicate "all the warning signs are there" for a return to full-scale conflict. Kendall also observed that government forces are now more unified than in previous years, a shift that could favor the government if Saudi Arabia intervenes decisively. The UN has called for de-escalation, condemning both the Houthi missile attacks and their continued strikes on oil tankers in the Red Sea. Why It Matters Marib is not just another front line—it hosts more than 2 million of Yemen's nearly 5 million internally displaced people. Renewed shelling of civilian neighborhoods threatens to trigger a new wave of displacement and deepen one of the world's worst humanitarian crises. The escalation also risks drawing in regional powers. If Saudi Arabia responds to the Houthi accusations with a broader offensive, the conflict could expand beyond Yemen's borders, destabilizing the entire region. The Houthi attacks on Red Sea oil tankers add another layer of international concern, threatening global shipping and energy supplies. What's Next With both sides showing willingness to escalate, the immediate future hinges on whether international pressure can force a return to de-escalation. The UN's condemnation sets the stage for potential diplomatic efforts, but the expired truce leaves little framework for negotiation. Observers like Kendall warn that the window for preventing a full-scale war is narrowing. Whether the government's more unified forces can hold the line—or whether Saudi Arabia steps in—will likely determine the conflict's trajectory in the coming weeks.