Fresh official data reveals that wheat and flour prices are still climbing even as the government pushes ahead with plans to import one million tonnes of grain. The latest Sensitive Price Index (SPI) figures for the week ending July 30 show national average prices for a 20kg flour bag, 10kg wheat, and one kilogram of fine flour rising to Rs2,200-3,133, Rs1,223, and Rs152.14, respectively. This marks a notable increase from the previous week's ranges of Rs2,200-2,960, Rs1,179, and Rs148. Karachi flour millers have also adjusted their rates upward, with a 50kg flour bag (No. 2.5), a 50kg bag of maida, and a 50kg bag of fine flour now priced at Rs6,675, Rs7,325, and Rs7,475. These figures represent a rise from Rs6,325, Rs6,825, and Rs6,975 in mid-July. The trajectory persists despite the fact that wheat harvested in Sindh and Punjab entered the market between March and May, a period that typically sees increased supply. Main Developments Official data indicates fluctuating price trends, suggesting that the reported 4.3 per cent increase in domestic wheat production during FY26 has done little to stabilise the market. Speculative investment and widespread hoarding remain significant factors undermining any potential relief from higher output. The federal government's import decision has not yet translated into tangible price reductions for consumers. Read also: 6 tanker strikes cut Iran oil smuggling by 60pc Even if the import plan materialises, stakeholders argue the impact will be minimal. Should flour prices fall by Rs8 to Rs10 per kilogram, the reduction would offer little respite to consumers already burdened by rising fuel and other living costs. The government's import strategy has, however, created friction with private sector commodity importers who had sought permission to bring in two million tonnes in a first phase and another two million tonnes subsequently. Private importers have urged the government to avoid routing imports through the Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP), while commodity wholesalers contend that private sector participation is unnecessary. A recent Wheat Board meeting saw provinces request a combined total of 2.2 million tonnes of wheat imports, with Punjab seeking one million tonnes, Sindh 500,000 tonnes, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 200,000 tonnes, and Balochistan 57,500 tonnes. Background The current price spiral unfolds against a backdrop of longstanding market dysfunction. In the absence of an effective price checking mechanism and strict vigilance against hoarding, market forces have enjoyed considerable freedom to withhold grain from the market. Flour millers have consistently blamed rising open-market wheat prices for their own increases, a claim that stakeholders dispute. Disagreement over actual production figures further complicates the picture. Karachi Wholesalers Grocers Association (KWGA) Chairman Rauf Ibrahim contends that this year's wheat output stands at 27 million tonnes rather than the officially reported figure exceeding 29 million tonnes, against an annual consumption of 32 million tonnes. Cereal Association of Pakistan (CAP) Chairman Muzammil Chappal offers an even lower estimate of 26 million tonnes, calling the government's data inaccurate. Chappal places total wheat demand at 31 million tonnes, of which one million to 1.5 million tonnes is required for animal feed. He also points to a prior successful import programme where Pakistan's private sector brought in approximately 3.7 million tonnes of wheat, which increased domestic availability, stabilised supplies, and helped reduce prices. Why It Matters The sustained price escalation directly impacts household budgets across Pakistan. Ibrahim highlighted the plight of a person earning Rs35,000 per month who must struggle to buy expensive flour while also meeting education, food, and fuel expenses. With imported wheat expected to arrive only in two to three months, prices will remain under pressure in the interim. The import decision also carries implications for the country's foreign exchange reserves and trade balance. Chappal noted that if the private sector were permitted to import wheat, its landed cost would be Rs95-100 per kg, based on a cost and freight (C&F) price of $330-350 per tonne at Karachi. He emphasised that Pakistan's private sector wheat importers stand fully prepared to import wheat entirely through their own commercial resources, without requiring any government subsidy or placing any financial burden on the national exchequer. What's Next The government faces an immediate decision on whether to involve the private sector in grain imports or proceed solely through official channels. Ibrahim advocates for government-managed imports, warning that private sector involvement may lead to cartelisation. He also recommends increasing the import quantity to four million tonnes to meet wheat demand until March or April of next year. Ensuring hassle-free movement of wheat among the provinces remains anot