The United Nations has begun the high-stakes process of selecting its next secretary-general, with an initial straw poll revealing former Costa Rican Vice President Rebeca Grynspan as the early frontrunner. The search comes at a time when the institution is grappling with a declining global status and mounting pressure from far-right populist movements that openly question the relevance of international bodies. Main Developments Seven candidates are currently vying to succeed Antonio Guterres, who has led the UN for the past decade. In the first non-binding straw poll conducted by the 15-member UN Security Council, Grynspan received 10 “encourage” votes, placing her ahead of former Guyanese Foreign Minister Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett, who attracted nine. Argentina’s Rafael Grossi, head of the UN nuclear watchdog, unexpectedly secured third place. The remaining candidates include former Senegalese President Macky Sall, former Chilean President Michelle Bachelet, former Ecuadorean Foreign Minister Maria Fernanda Espinosa, and Ugandan diplomat Olara Otunnu, who entered the race just last week. Read also: Suspected Russian missile strike in Poland caught on security camera The straw polls ask Security Council members to secretly vote whether they “encourage,” “discourage,” or have “no opinion” on each candidate. Support from the five permanent members—China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States—remains critical, as any one of them can veto a nominee. Background Guterres's tenure, spanning a decade marked by escalating global conflicts and a rise in anti-internationalist sentiment, has left his successor with an organization widely seen as in crisis. The UN's authority has been increasingly challenged, particularly by far-right populist movements that have gained traction in several member states. Reform pressures have been building for years, with critics arguing that the Security Council's structure—unchanged since 1945—no longer reflects modern geopolitical realities. The selection process itself is opaque and has historically favored candidates from smaller nations, though the final choice often hinges on backroom negotiations among the permanent five. Why It Matters The next secretary-general will inherit an institution struggling to maintain relevance in a fragmented world order. Spiralling conflicts, from Ukraine to the Middle East, have exposed the UN's limited ability to enforce resolutions or mediate effectively. Meanwhile, the rise of populist movements in key donor countries threatens funding and political support. The new leader must revitalize an organization that many perceive as ineffective, all while navigating deep divisions among member states. Failure to do so could accelerate a shift toward unilateral action and further erode multilateral cooperation. What's Next Historical precedent suggests multiple rounds of straw polling will continue through the summer, with a final selection expected in late September or early October. However, if no consensus candidate emerges, the process could be prolonged. The Security Council will eventually put forward a single nominee for approval by the General Assembly. Grynspan's early lead is notable, but the race remains fluid, and the permanent members' preferences could shift as negotiations intensify behind closed doors.