When Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan lands in Jeddah on Friday, the official script is a routine one-day working visit. Yet behind the scenes, the meeting carries the weight of a potential three-way defence pact that could redraw security alignments from the Red Sea to the Persian Gulf. Main Developments Erdogan's agenda includes a trilateral meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who arrived in the kingdom on Thursday for a three-day visit alongside Pakistan's army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir. Turkish presidential communications director Burhanettin Duran confirmed the gathering but kept details vague, saying it would cover "bilateral relations and regional developments." Regional media have reported that talks will focus on maritime security, the fallout from the US-Israel war on Iran, and defence cooperation. Ankara has remained notably tight-lipped about specifics, but a source close to the Saudi military told AFP that the three leaders are set to sign a joint defence agreement in Jeddah on Friday. Read also: Mamdani Backs El-Sayed, Shrugs Off 'Mini Mamdani' Jab A Turkish intelligence source added that the pact's foundational terms have already been agreed among the three sides. If confirmed, this would extend the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement that Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed in September 2025—which treats an attack on one as an attack on both—into a three-way framework with Turkiye. None of this has been publicly confirmed by any of the three governments, leaving open the possibility that the visit ends with a more modest joint statement instead. Erdogan's February trip to Riyadh generated similar talk of a Turkish-Saudi axis, but no formal alliance materialised then. Background The timing of Friday's visit is significant, coming just a week after Saudi Arabia unveiled a multinational maritime security initiative to protect shipping through the Red Sea, the Bab al-Mandeb strait, and the Gulf of Aden. That coalition has already attracted backing from 14 countries, including Turkiye and Pakistan. Months of upheaval in the Strait of Hormuz, driven by the US and Israel's war on Iran, have also set the stage. Islamabad has positioned itself as the go-to mediator in that conflict, while Iran has retaliated against US and Israeli attacks by launching missiles and drones at military bases hosting American troops across the region, including in Gulf states. Iran has also targeted hotels and energy sites. Separately, Saudi Arabia has been grappling with heightened tensions with the Houthis in Yemen. The two sides have traded attacks over recent weeks, and the Yemeni group has been targeting Saudi ships in the Red Sea. After Erdogan's February visit, Ankara and Riyadh issued a joint statement pledging to enhance economic, energy, and security cooperation. They affirmed their desire to strengthen defence relations "in a way that serves the interests of both countries and contributes to achieving security and stability in the region, including through multilateral cooperation platforms." The two countries also aligned on supporting a ceasefire in Gaza and the internationally recognised government in Yemen, while rejecting Israel's recognition of the breakaway region of Somaliland in Somalia. On Somalia, both sides expressed unwavering support for its sovereignty, territorial integrity, and unity. Why It Matters A formal defence pact among Turkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan would represent a major realignment in the region, tying together three Sunni-majority powers with significant military capabilities. It would also send a strong signal to Iran and its allies, potentially escalating an already volatile security environment. For Gulf states hosting US troops, the agreement could complicate their defence posture, as Iran has already shown willingness to strike at bases used by American forces. The pact could also bolster Saudi Arabia's maritime security efforts, especially in the Red Sea where Houthi attacks on shipping have intensified. Pakistan's role as mediator in the Hormuz crisis adds another layer, potentially giving the alliance diplomatic leverage even as it deepens military ties. The economic and energy cooperation pledged in February could also gain momentum, linking the three countries' strategic interests more tightly. What's Next Observers will be watching closely to see whether the leaders emerge from Friday's meeting with a signed agreement or a softer joint statement. Given the precedent from February, where similar expectations were not met, the outcome remains uncertain. If a defence pact is indeed signed, the next step would likely be parliamentary ratification in each country, a process that could take months. The pact's scope—whether it includes mutual defence commitments, intelligence sharing, or joint military exercises—will also be scrutinised. Beyond the immediate visit, the trilateral relationship could shape