President Donald Trump declared on Thursday that the war with Iran "can't go much longer," yet the path to peace remains clouded by broken promises, disputed shipping lanes, and a persistent credibility gap between Washington and Tehran. The conflict, which began with US-Israeli strikes on Tehran in early March, has triggered a global energy crisis through the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that carries a significant portion of the world's oil. With Iran and Oman now agreeing on shipping coordinates, a fragile window for diplomacy has opened, but the underlying mistrust between the two principal adversaries has not dissipated. Main Developments Trump's latest assessment of the conflict came during an Oval Office appearance, where he told reporters he believes the war is nearing its conclusion. He claimed to be involved in negotiations with Tehran, adding that "we're doing fine" in those efforts. The president also promised that petrol prices would drop once the conflict concludes, a statement aimed at easing consumer concerns about the energy crisis. Read also: 3 nations sign defence pact: What it means for the region However, Iran has publicly denied engaging in direct talks with the United States, insisting that its only conversations are with Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz. On Thursday, Iran and Oman announced they had agreed on coordinates for shipping routes through the waterway, a technical step that could pave the way for broader discussions. The strait has been closed to most traffic since early March, with shipping data showing only 33 vessels transiting between Monday and Thursday, down from 50 the previous week, according to Reuters. A preliminary bill is also under review by an Iranian parliamentary committee that would bar US, Israeli, and other "hostile" vessels from passing through the strait, according to Iran's Fars news agency, citing an unnamed lawmaker. This legislative move stands in tension with the ongoing Omani-mediated talks, suggesting that Tehran is keeping multiple options on the table. The closure of the strait has had cascading effects on global energy markets, making the resolution of shipping routes a matter of international urgency. Background The current crisis traces back to early March, when Iran first closed the Strait of Hormuz following the start of US-Israeli strikes on Tehran. A memorandum of understanding was signed on June 17 between Iran and the US, under which Tehran committed to reopening the strait to all shipping freely for at least 60 days. The vague wording of that agreement, however, led to disagreements over what routes ships should take, ultimately resulting in Iran firing at vessels using a US and Oman-approved route. Trump's approach to the conflict has followed a recurring pattern of escalation followed by retreat. On April 7, he threatened that "a whole civilisation will die tonight, never to be brought back again" if Iran did not open the strait. With two hours left in his ultimatum, he rescinded the threat and instead announced a two-week ceasefire. More recently, last Saturday, Trump cancelled a planned large-scale military attack on Iran, claiming that Tehran and other regional countries had asked for the strikes to be called off as a diplomatic breakthrough was close. This seesaw dynamic has drawn criticism from analysts who argue it undermines the credibility of both US threats and promises. Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, told Al Jazeera that Trump's repeated escalations and cancellations have harmed prospects for a negotiated settlement. "At some point, all credibility for negotiations is going to be lost," he said, noting that the credibility of sticking to a deal, offering incentives, and making threats are all now questionable. Why It Matters The resolution of the Strait of Hormuz dispute is critical not only for regional stability but for the global economy, given the waterway's role in oil transit. Yet experts caution that even a successful agreement on shipping routes will not end the broader US-Iran war. Alan Eyre, a distinguished diplomatic fellow with the Middle East Institute, told Al Jazeera that the only important talks currently taking place are between Iran and Oman, as Tehran has concluded it "can't count on anything the US says." There are also mounting concerns about US military readiness. Michael Stephens, a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, said reports have circulated for months that the US was running low on interceptors, a problem that would worsen if the war continued. He noted that missile shortages make it more dangerous for US military personnel to operate in the region and are putting strain on other commands in East Asia, making the problem "very acute." Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who also serves as chief negotiator, accused Trump of conducting "theater diplomacy" in a social media post