A social media clash between Sam Altman and Elon Musk has highlighted a growing divide between investor enthusiasm for space-based data centers and the sober assessments of industry experts. Musk's SpaceX, valued at $2 trillion partly on the promise of orbital AI compute, faces skepticism from engineers and entrepreneurs who question the near-term viability of the concept. Main Developments Altman publicly dismissed Musk's space data center ambitions over the weekend, accusing him of selling public market investors on a short-term fantasy. The OpenAI CEO's critique aligns with what many subject-matter experts have quietly concluded: orbital data centers for AI inference will not become a serious business for years. SpaceX's plan to launch a fleet of orbital data centers is central to its valuation, with bullish analysts calling the potential an unprecedented opportunity in the AI boom. Musk responded by claiming his company will start flying them next year, a timeline experts view as technically possible for a single satellite but far from commercial scale. Read also: User-Aligned AI Sparks Debate Over Personal Freedom vs. Collective Safety Background The space-compute business has attracted interest from Google's orbital compute project and various startups, but all face the same fundamental barrier: cheap rockets and mass-produced high-powered satellites do not yet exist. SpaceX's Starship, now preparing for its 13th test flight as soon as July 16, is Musk's answer to this problem. Even if Starship successfully recovers both stages on the upcoming flight, operational reusable flight remains years away. SpaceX itself conceded during its IPO road show that Starship may not achieve full reusability in the near term, requiring the company to discard each second stage during launch—a cost structure that undermines the economic case for space data centers. Why It Matters Public market investors have baked space data center revenue into SpaceX's valuation, yet the technical and economic hurdles are substantial. Until rockets become dramatically cheaper and satellite production scales up, orbital compute will remain a niche experiment rather than a transformative AI infrastructure play. SpaceX's commitments to NASA and the Starlink network will likely take priority over data center launches, further delaying any meaningful deployment. The gap between Musk's aggressive timeline and engineering reality could lead to market corrections if investors begin listening to the experts Altman is echoing. What's Next The upcoming Starship test flight will offer a tangible milestone, but even success will not close the gap between prototype and production. Experts suggest the industry is unlikely to achieve scale until the 2030s, leaving Musk's promise of orbital data centers next year as a symbolic target rather than a near-term reality.