Retailers who have invested heavily in security measures are finally seeing a payoff — but the battle against retail crime is far from over. A new industry report reveals that while traditional shoplifting and merchandise theft declined in 2025, criminals are shifting tactics, driving up fraud and scams across both physical and digital channels. Main Developments The National Retail Federation's “Impact of Theft & Violence 2026” report, produced with the Loss Prevention Research Council and sponsored by Sensormatic Solutions, documents a 12.4 percent drop in shoplifting incidents and an 8.1 percent decline in retail merchandise theft in 2025 compared with 2024. Those improvements, however, are offset by increases in external theft methods such as cargo theft, gift card fraud, and phone scams. The report found that 69 percent of retailers reported rising phone scams, 51 percent saw more loyalty fraud, and 42 percent noted an increase in gift card theft or fraud. Read also: Hannah Waddingham’s 4-Inch Stilettos Steal the Show at Ted Lasso Event Violence remains a significant concern. Retailers continue to report increases in homelessness-related disruptions and guest-related incidents. In response, 72 percent are investing in management training, 65 percent in employee training, and 61 percent in risk-intelligence technologies to strengthen proactive workplace violence prevention. Background The report comes after several years of rising in-store theft that prompted retailers to overhaul their security strategies. David Johnston, NRF vice president for asset protection and retail operations, said the stabilization levels are “driven by investments in technology and employee training to strengthen store security and improve response to these crimes.” Half of all retailers surveyed said they are seeing higher rates of repeat offenders, while 37 percent reported more walkout or pushout theft. These patterns underscore the persistence of organized retail crime, which the NRF describes as “evolving” and exploiting both physical and digital retail environments. Read Hayes, Ph.D., University of Florida research scientist and Loss Prevention Research Council executive director, emphasized that “trusted research is essential to understanding these threats and how they continue to evolve.” He noted that as shoplifting rates stabilize, “the retail industry must confront the growing challenges of fraud and external theft.” Why It Matters The data signals that retailers' investments in enhanced security systems, employee training, and loss-pattern analysis are yielding measurable results in reducing traditional theft. Yet the rise in fraud and violence indicates that criminals are adapting faster than some prevention methods can keep up. Tony D'Onofrio, president of Sensormatic Solutions, said the report underscores that “no single company can address this challenge alone.” He called for “strong collaboration among retailers, communities and law enforcement agencies to enhance asset protection and keep employees and customers safe.” For consumers, the shift means they may encounter fewer empty shelves from shoplifting but could face more sophisticated fraud attempts, such as gift card scams or loyalty program breaches. For retailers, the stakes include both financial losses and the safety of their workforce. What's Next The NRF is using the report to push for federal legislation. Following passage in the U.S. House of Representatives, the organization is urging the Senate to pass the Combating Organized Retail Crime Act, which would strengthen federal coordination and help state and local law enforcement identify and investigate cross-jurisdictional and transnational retail crime groups. Retailers are expected to continue refining their security measures, particularly around fraud detection and violence prevention. The report suggests that ongoing evaluation of security effectiveness will be critical as criminals shift their tactics between physical stores and digital channels.