Oil markets are bracing for a carefully choreographed shift in supply policy as OPEC+ prepares to greenlight a modest production increase for September — a move that will close out a long-running rollback of voluntary cuts before the alliance hits pause on further expansions. Delegates familiar with the group's thinking say the upcoming decision, expected Sunday, would add roughly 188,000 barrels per day to collective output starting next month. That increment marks the final step in unwinding a 1.65 million bpd supply reduction originally agreed upon in 2023. Main Developments Seven core OPEC+ members — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman — have been steadily raising monthly quotas for most of this year. Yet those paper increases have often failed to translate into actual barrels reaching the market, as conflicts involving Iran and Ukraine disrupted exports from the Gulf, Russia and Kazakhstan. Read also: Why Pakistan's reform push is hitting a constitutional wall Following September's adjustment, the alliance is expected to freeze further output hikes for the remainder of the year, according to an OPEC+ delegate and another source within the group. The anticipated pause comes as members brace for potentially contentious negotiations over future production targets. Background The September increase completes a phased reversal of supply cuts that began in 2023, when the group's membership still included the United Arab Emirates. The UAE departed OPEC in May, reshaping the alliance's internal dynamics ahead of these discussions. OPEC+ is currently conducting a review of members' oil production capacity, data that will inform 2027 output baselines from which individual quotas are calculated. This review process sits at the heart of the upcoming talks on how to allocate future supply. Why It Matters Even after September's increase, roughly 2 million bpd of OPEC+ cuts dating back to 2022 will remain in place. That substantial buffer gives the group room to respond to market conditions while preserving pricing power. Some members, notably Iraq, are pushing for higher individual quotas to reflect what they argue is greater production capacity. How the alliance resolves these competing claims will determine whether the pause extends beyond year-end or gives way to a new round of supply adjustments. What's Next The Sunday meeting will formalize September's quota increase and signal the group's intention to hold output steady afterward. Attention will then shift to the capacity review and the difficult negotiations over 2027 baselines, which could test the cohesion of the seven-member core as they balance market share ambitions against price stability.