Renewed military exchanges between the United States and Iran over the weekend have sent oil prices soaring more than three percent, as traders recalibrate the risk of supply disruptions through the world's most critical energy chokepoint. Brent crude futures jumped $2.47 to $78.48 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate rose $2.35 to $73.76, reflecting what analysts describe as a dual threat of risk premium and actual disruption. Main Developments Iran's Revolutionary Guards announced on Monday that they had attacked US military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, following Sunday strikes by Tehran on US facilities across the Gulf. Iran also declared it had again closed the Strait of Hormuz after a vessel traveling on an unapproved route was struck. Ship-tracking data from Kpler showed only six vessels transited the strait on Sunday, marking a five-week low. ANZ analysts noted that shipping operators are adopting a cautious approach, with inbound movements slowing under heightening security concerns. US President Donald Trump countered on Sunday that the strait remained open to commercial traffic. Read also: Pakistan ministries split over e-motorcycle quality standards The escalating attacks cast doubt on an interim US-Iranian agreement signed last month, which aimed to reopen the strait and end the war after 60 more days of negotiations. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said the market's focus will remain on inbound tanker numbers, with lower traffic potentially impacting production. Background Before the war began at the end of February, roughly 20 percent of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas transited the Strait of Hormuz. The interim peace deal had briefly boosted global oil supply by 4.1 million barrels per day in June, according to the International Energy Agency's monthly report released Friday, though that remained 9.4 million bpd below pre-war levels. Iranian oil supplies held at sea have been rising after Tehran boosted exports during the deal. However, sales have been slow as China's independent refiners have turned to cheaper crude from Iraq, the UAE and Qatar. The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company set its August benchmark Murban crude price at $80.01 a barrel, down sharply from $101.48 the month before. Why It Matters The renewed confrontation threatens not only immediate oil supply but also the fragile diplomatic framework that had temporarily de-escalated tensions. Any sustained disruption through Hormuz would directly impact global energy prices, with analysts warning that a lower number of inbound tankers could force production cuts in the region. Goldman Sachs estimates that expanding pipeline capacity in the Middle East could shield more than 60 percent of pre-war Gulf oil exports from future Hormuz disruptions by end-2028. The bank's base-case forecast assumes pipeline bypass capacity will rise by 3.8 million bpd by end-2027 and 7.3 million bpd cumulatively by end-2028, reaching total effective bypass capacity of more than 14 million bpd. What's Next Markets will watch closely for any further military escalation or diplomatic moves that could clarify the strait's status. The 60-day negotiation window under the interim agreement now appears in jeopardy, and the next IEA monthly report will reveal whether June's supply gains can be sustained amid renewed hostilities. Separately, Ukraine's Security Service said it struck an oil depot in Russia's Stavropol region and three storage tanks at a port in Krasnodar, adding another layer of geopolitical risk to energy markets.