Pakistan's oil supply chain is under fresh strain as petrol stocks have slipped to a 14-day cover, prompting the government to urgently address hoarding risks and procedural bottlenecks. A hastily convened meeting of the National Coordination and Management Council (NCMC) on Thursday sought to calm nerves while signaling tougher enforcement against profiteering. Main Developments Petrol consumption has surged roughly 18-20% year-on-year in the first half of July, while diesel demand is running about 40% higher than the five-year July average. The spike follows a substantial price cut in recent weeks and a narrowing price gap with smuggled Iranian fuel, which has reduced illegal inflows. Stocks now stand at 345,000 tonnes of petrol against daily consumption of 25,000 tonnes, giving a 14-day cover. Diesel stocks are healthier at 465,000 tonnes, covering about 21 days of demand at 23,000 tonnes per day. Local refineries supply only 9,000 tonnes of petrol daily and 16,000 tonnes of diesel, making the country heavily reliant on imports. Read also: 3 catalysts behind PSX's 2,800-point surge to 178,000 The crisis has been compounded by two of Pakistan State Oil's (PSO) planned import cargoes being cancelled after they failed to secure NCMC clearance amid falling global prices ahead of a tentative US-Iran peace agreement. Renewed US-Iran hostilities then sent import premiums soaring—PSO's latest two petrol cargoes attracted premiums of around $25 per barrel, up from $12 just 10 days ago. Retail prices have climbed an estimated Rs10-12 per litre for petrol and Rs40-42 per litre for diesel since the tensions escalated, creating a powerful incentive for dealers to stockpile and hoarders to profit. The Oil Companies Advisory Council (OCAC), representing over three dozen refiners and marketing companies, sent an urgent warning to the government about an impending supply chain crunch. Background The NCMC, a civil-military body on energy supplies, was created only recently to coordinate fuel security. Minister for Economic Affairs Ahad Khan Cheema chairs the council, while Lt Gen Zafar Iqbal serves as co-chairman of its executive committee. Thursday's meeting included Petroleum Minister Ali Pervez Malik, representatives of oil marketing companies and refineries, OCAC officials, Member Customs FBR, and the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra). Smaller oil companies have been reluctant to increase imports, citing more than Rs66 billion in pending price differential claims (PDCs) against the government. The OCAC had demanded immediate disbursement of about Rs67 billion to ensure smooth supplies. Additionally, a portion of existing stocks is effectively unavailable due to bottlenecks in customs clearance, reducing the immediately saleable inventory. Why It Matters Pakistan's fuel lifeline depends overwhelmingly on PSO, and any sustained disruption could trigger localized shortages, especially in upcountry locations. The OCAC warned that further delays in customs clearance would materially impact product availability. With petrol consumption at 25,000 tonnes daily and local refineries able to supply only 9,000 tonnes, the gap must be filled by imports that are now more expensive and harder to secure. The NCMC acknowledged that Ogra's analysis indicated hoarding in anticipation of price increases. The council urged provincial governments to prevent hoarding and ensure uninterrupted supply. If unchecked, speculative behavior could exacerbate shortages and drive pump prices even higher, hurting consumers and the broader economy. What's Next The government has directed Ogra to activate its enforcement mechanism more proactively against hoarding. Customs authorities have promised to immediately resolve clearance bottlenecks. The NCMC reaffirmed that current stocks are sufficient but ordered all stakeholders to maintain uninterrupted supply. Industry sources suggest the government may need to revert to fuel conservation measures adopted in recent months as it reviews the regional security situation.