Gold's latest climb toward a 10-week high isn't just about safe-haven demand — it's a direct bet that the Federal Reserve will blink on rate hikes. Bullion rose 0.6% to $4,391.82 per ounce by 0535 GMT on Wednesday, while US gold futures for December delivery added 0.2% to $4,451.90. Main Developments Investors are squarely focused on the US Consumer Price Index data due later in the day, a release that could quickly reshape interest rate expectations. Markets currently price a 50% chance of a September rate hike, down from 60% before Friday's surprisingly weak jobs report. That jobs data triggered gold's largest weekly gain since January, as traders rushed to scale back bets on tightening. The metal hit a 10-week high on Tuesday before stalling at technical resistance near the 100-day moving average around $4,387, closing lower for the second time this month. Read also: Petrol Pump Owners Set Nationwide Shutdown Over Margin Demands Analysts point to both fundamental and technical drivers. "The primary driver for gold is the reduction in pricing of rate hikes by the Fed," said Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at Oanda, who also noted a bullish break above $4,200 late last week that created a positive momentum feedback loop. Lower interest rates support gold because the metal pays no interest, making it more attractive when yields fall. However, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee has signaled he remains more worried about inflation staying too high than about labor market weakness. In Pakistan, gold prices also moved higher, with one tola (24-karat) rising by Rs4,200 to Rs463,936 and 10 grams (24-karat) up Rs3,601 to Rs397,750, according to the All Pakistan Sarafa Gems and Jewellers Association. Background Gold's recent strength follows a volatile period marked by geopolitical tensions and shifting Fed policy expectations. Oil prices extended gains on Tuesday after separate attacks on shipping reported by the US and Houthis, while prospects for ending the Iran war appeared to dim — Tehran said the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed unless Washington accepts its conditions. Other precious metals mirrored gold's upward trend: spot silver rose 0.8% to $65.20 per ounce, though it traded below Tuesday's high since June 22. Platinum gained 0.2% to $1,748.03, and palladium added 0.8% to $1,370.75. Why It Matters Today's inflation data will likely determine whether gold's rally has legs or fades. If price pressures prove sticky, the Fed may stay hawkish, capping bullion's upside — but a cooler reading could reinforce rate-cut bets, pushing gold toward new highs. For investors globally, gold serves as a hedge against both inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. The metal's recent surge above $4,200 signals renewed bullish sentiment, but technical resistance at the 100-day moving average shows the rally is not without hurdles. What's Next All eyes are on the US CPI release later Wednesday. A stronger-than-expected inflation figure could revive rate-hike expectations and pressure gold, while a weak print would likely extend the rally toward key resistance levels. Traders will also monitor geopolitical developments, particularly any shifts in the Iran conflict or shipping disruptions that could fuel further safe-haven demand.