Pakistan's cotton season has opened with unexpected momentum, as seed-cotton arrivals at ginning factories jumped by nearly a third compared to last year. The Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA) reported that phutti arrivals reached 785,822 bales by July 31, a 32.33 percent increase from the 593,821 bales recorded during the same period in the previous year. The surge defies expectations of continued decline in the country's cotton sector. Main Developments Sindh emerged as the primary driver of growth, posting a record 66.82 percent increase in arrivals to 487,672 bales despite recent monsoon rains. Punjab, however, saw a marginal 1.1 percent decline to 298,150 bales, while Balochistan recorded a 52.67 percent rise to 22,900 bales. The regional divergence highlights shifting production patterns across the country. Read also: Why Pakistan-Iran $10B Trade Goal Faces New Urgency Sanghar district alone contributed 398,000 bales, accounting for 82 percent of Sindh's production and 51 percent of the national total. Early sowing in coastal areas during February and March brought the crop to market sooner than in other regions, explaining the district's outsized share of early-season arrivals. A notable discrepancy has emerged between official data sources. Cotton Ginners Forum Chairman Ihsanul Haq pointed out that Punjab's Crop Reporting Service (CRS) claimed production of about 435,000 bales by July 30, roughly 32 percent higher than the PCGA estimate of around 298,000 bales. Haq said the difference warranted clarification from the relevant authorities. Background The CRS figures also revealed an alarming collapse in cotton cultivation across Bahawalpur Division, where only around 17,000 bales were produced despite the region once being Pakistan's leading cotton-growing belt. Haq attributed this transformation to the rapid expansion of sugarcane cultivation, driven by the concentration of sugar mills in the region, which has converted traditional cotton zones into sugarcane belts. This shift has broader implications for Pakistan's agricultural imports. The country imported a record 3.482 million tonnes of edible oil worth $3.785 billion in 2025-26, compared with 3.214 million tonnes valued at $3.40 billion a year earlier. Shrinking cotton acreage is forcing the nation to rely increasingly on imports of both cotton and edible oil. Why It Matters The early-season figures suggest a stronger start than last year, according to Sajid Mahmood, head of the Transfer of Technology Department at the Central Cotton Research Institute (CCRI), Multan. Timely sowing, harvesting and improved crop management in Sindh have supported higher arrivals, but the sustainability of this momentum remains uncertain. Prolonged humidity and rainfall could increase the incidence of whitefly, pink bollworm and crop diseases, affecting lint quality and yields. Mahmood advised growers to ensure proper drainage, closely monitor pest populations and adopt plant protection measures in consultation with agricultural extension officials. Meanwhile, the market shows moderate activity: textile mills purchased 704,000 bales, exporters bought 3,400 bales, leaving 78,044 bales unsold at ginning factories. A total of 231 ginning factories were operational across the country, including 108 in Punjab and 123 in Sindh, although some units had either become partially operational or suspended operations due to financial and commercial constraints. What's Next August and September will provide a more reliable indication of the overall crop, Mahmood cautioned, as early-season data can be misleading. The coming weeks will also determine whether the discrepancy between PCGA and CRS figures is resolved, and whether the government responds to Haq's urging to restrict sugarcane farming in designated cotton-growing areas. The fate of Punjab's cotton belt, particularly Bahawalpur Division, remains a critical question. Without intervention to reverse the sugarcane expansion, Pakistan's domestic cotton production may continue to shrink, deepening the country's dependence on imported cotton and edible oil.