Heavy rainfall across Indian-occupied Kashmir and Punjab is driving a surge in the Chenab River’s water level, with officials warning it could reach high-flood status within days. The development has put provincial disaster management authorities on alert as monsoon systems intensify over the catchment areas. Main Developments A senior official from the Punjab Irrigation Department confirmed Monday that the Chenab River is currently flowing at medium flood levels. Forecasts of continued heavy rain over the next three to four days in both held Kashmir and Punjab could push flows into the high-flood category, the official said. “The situation may turn critical if there are heavy rains, as predicted,” he added. The Flood Forecasting Division (FFD) of the Pakistan Meteorological Department issued a bulletin projecting high flood levels in major rivers, including the Chenab, through at least July 24. A westerly wave combined with a strong monsoon incursion from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal is driving the surge across all major river catchments. Read also: 3 Key Rulings: LHC Protects Wife's Dower in Misconduct-Based Divorces High flood levels are expected at Marala on the Chenab, upstream of Mangla on the Jhelum, and in several associated nullahs—including Dora, Dotta, Dowara, Bhimber, Halsi, Aik, and Palkhu—as well as the Ravi tributaries Bein, Bassanter, Deg, and Sakki. The FFD also warned of high flows in the Kabul River and its tributaries. Background The Chenab River originates in the Himalayas and flows through Indian-occupied Kashmir before entering Pakistan’s Punjab province. Its catchment area in the disputed region has historically made flood forecasting complex, as data sharing between the two countries is limited. The current monsoon season has been unusually active, with multiple westerly waves enhancing rainfall over the past weeks. Previous flood events along the Chenab have caused significant damage to crops and infrastructure in Punjab’s low-lying areas. The FFD’s Monday bulletin noted that the Indus River remains at low to below-low levels at Tarbela, Kalabagh, Chashma, Taunsa, Guddu, Sukkur, and Kotri, while the Jhelum is flowing in low to medium flood at Mangla and Rasul. The Ravi and Sutlej rivers are at below-low flood levels. Why It Matters Rising river levels pose immediate threats to agricultural land, settlements, and critical infrastructure in Punjab. The FFD’s flash-flood warning covers hill torrents in Dera Ghazi Khan, streams in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and northern Balochistan, and urban areas including Rawalpindi, Jhelum, Gujranwala, Sargodha, Khushab, Sialkot, Gujrat, Narowal, Lahore, Okara, Sahiwal, Bahawalnagar, and Faisalabad. Urban flooding could disrupt daily life and strain drainage systems. What's Next The FFD expects river flows to increase significantly by July 24. Authorities are likely to monitor gauging stations closely and may issue evacuation advisories if conditions worsen. The Water and Power Development Authority reported Monday that inflows at Tarbela stood at 232,500 cusecs with outflows of 210,000 cusecs, while at Mangla inflows were 57,400 cusecs against outflows of 10,000 cusecs—indicating reservoir management is underway to mitigate downstream impacts.