India's monsoon is about to turn stingy. Over the next fortnight, western, central and southern regions can expect below-average rainfall, a development that threatens freshly planted cotton, soybean, corn and pulse crops, according to two senior weather officials. The timing could not be more delicate: farmers expanded summer sowing after July's near-normal rains boosted soil moisture. Main Developments Rainfall will ease across most of the country, with only some eastern and northern states escaping the dry spell, said a senior India Meteorological Department official who spoke on condition of anonymity. "The rainfall deficit could be quite significant in western and southern states during this period," he warned. A strengthening El Nino is expected to further shrink rainfall by month's end, widening the deficit, a second weather department official added. So far this season, which began June 1, India has recorded 12 per cent less rain than average, with southern Andhra Pradesh facing a shortfall as steep as 34 per cent. Read also: Pakistan fuel prices: 2 key changes in latest revision Background The monsoon delivers roughly 70 per cent of India's annual rainfall, replenishing reservoirs and aquifers in a nearly $4 trillion economy. Nearly half of the country's farmland lacks irrigation, leaving crops dependent on seasonal skies. Agriculture sustains about half the population, making rainfall variability a direct driver of rural livelihoods. July's near-normal rains had encouraged farmers to scale up planting of summer-sown crops including soybeans, cotton, corn, pulses and paddy. That optimism now collides with forecasts of a drier stretch, raising the spectre of crop stress during a critical growth phase. Why It Matters The stakes extend beyond farm gates. A significant rainfall deficit can trim agricultural output, push up food prices and strain rural incomes in an economy where agriculture remains a cornerstone. For global commodity markets, India's soybean, cotton and pulse production swings carry weight, given the country's export footprint. Meanwhile, the broader risk picture is sobering. Swiss Re estimated worldwide economic losses from natural catastrophes at $100 billion in the first half of this year, down from $152 billion in the same period last year and 10 per cent below the 10-year average. But the reinsurance group cautioned that severe storms in the United States and deadly earthquakes in Venezuela in June show hazards remain ever-present. What's Next Forecasters will track whether the El Nino-driven deficit materialises as projected over the coming weeks. For farmers, the immediate question is whether the dry spell arrives before or after crops reach their most water-sensitive stages. Swiss Re's catastrophe director Balz Grollimund offered a blunt reminder: "A less costly first half of the year does not mean the risk has gone away. One major hurricane, earthquake or wildfire can quickly change the picture."